Climate change

Extreme hunger has more than doubled in 10 of the world’s worst climate hotspots over past six years

September 28, 2022

Less than 18 days of fossil fuel companies’ profits would cover the entire UN humanitarian appeal for 2022

Ten of the world’s worst climate hotspots – those with the highest number of UN appeals driven by extreme weather events – have suffered a 123 percent rise in acute hunger over just the past six years, according to an Oxfam report published today.

Gabriela Bucher, Oxfam International Executive Director, said: “Climate change is no longer a ticking bomb, it is exploding before our eyes. It is making extreme weather such as droughts, cyclones, and floods – which have increased five-fold over the past 50 years – more frequent and more deadly.”

The brief – Hunger in a heating world– found that those 10 climate hotspots – Somalia, Haiti, Djibouti, Kenya, Niger, Afghanistan, Guatemala, Madagascar, Burkina Faso, and Zimbabwe – have repeatedly been battered by extreme weather over the last two decades. Today, 48 million people across those countries suffer acute hunger (up from 21 million in 2016), and 18 million people of them are on the brink of starvation.

“For millions of people already pummelled down by ongoing conflict, widening inequalities, and economic crises, repeated climate shocks are becoming a backbreaker. The onslaught of climate disasters is now outpacing poor people’s ability to cope, pushing them deeper into severe hunger,” said Bucher.

For example:

Somalia is facing its worst drought on record, and famine is expected to unfold in two of its districts: Baidoa and Burhakaba. One million people have been forced to flee their homes due to the drought. The country ranks 172^nd out of 182 countries in terms of its readiness to cope with climate change.
In Kenya, the current drought has killed nearly 2.5 million livestock and left 2.4 million people hungry, including hundreds of thousands of children severely malnourished.
In Niger, 6 million people are facing acute hunger today (up 767 percent from 2016). Cereal production has crashed by nearly 40 percent, as frequent climatic shocks on top of ongoing conflict have made harvesting increasingly difficult. Production of staple foods such as millet and sorghum could plummet even further by 25 percent if global warming surpasses 2°C.
Burkina Faso has seen a staggering 1350 percent rise in hunger since 2016, with more than 3.4 million people in extreme hunger as of June 2022 due to armed conflict and worsening desertification of crop and pastoral lands. Global warming above 2°C would likely decrease cereal yields like millet and sorghum by 15–25 percent.
In Guatemala, a severe drought has contributed to the loss of close to 80 percent of the maize harvest and devastated coffee plantations.

“We spent almost eight days with hardly any food,” says Mariana López, a mother living in Naranjo in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor. Persistent drought forced her to sell her land.

Climate-fuelled hunger is a stark demonstration of global inequality. Countries that are least responsible for the climate crisis are suffering most from its impact and are also the least resourced to cope with it. Collectively responsible for just 0.13 per cent of global carbon emissions, the 10 climate hotspots sit in the bottom third of countries least ready for climate change.

In contrast, polluting industrialized nations such as those of the G20 – which control 80 percent of the world’s economy – are together responsible for over three-quarters of the world’s carbon emissions.

Leaders of these nations continue to support mega-rich polluting companies that are often big supporters of their political campaigns. Fossil fuel companies’ daily profits have averaged US$2.8 billion over the last 50 years. Less than 18 days of those profits would fund the entire UN humanitarian appeal for 2022 of US$49 billion.

Important policy changes are equally needed to address the double crisis of climate and hunger. Unless massive and immediate action is taken, hunger will continue to spiral.

“Ahead of UN General Assembly meetings this week, and COP 27 in November, leaders especially of rich polluting countries must live up to their promises to cut emissions. They must pay for adaptation measures and loss-and-damage in low-income countries, as well as immediately inject lifesaving funds to meet the UN appeal to respond to the most impacted countries.

“We cannot fix the climate crisis without fixing the systemic inequalities in our food and energy systems. Increasing taxation on super polluters could easily cover the cost. Just 1% of the fossil fuel companies’ average annual profit would generate US$10 billion, enough to cover most of the shortfall in funding the UN humanitarian food security appeal,” Bucher said.

Cancelling debt can also help governments free up resources to invest in climate mitigation.

“Rich and most polluting nations have a moral responsibility to compensate low-income countries most impacted by the climate crisis. This is an ethical obligation, not charity,” said Bucher.

Notes

Download Oxfam report Hunger in a Heating World.

The FSIN began producing the Global Reports on Food Crises in 2017. Sum of the population in IPC3+ food insecurity in the ten countries in 2016 (See GRFC 2017, p. 21) was 21.3 million and in 2021 (See GRFC 2022, pp. 30 – 33) was 47.5. The percent rise is therefore 123 percent.
The calculations of those facing starvation in the 10 countries is based on the total number of people at IPC 4 level of food insecurity and above in 2021, according to the GRFC 2022, see Understanding IPC classification
The 10 worst climate hotspots were calculated looking at countries with the highest number of extreme weather-related UN appeals since 2000, where climate was classified as a “major contributor” to these appeals. Source: Oxfam’s “Footing the Bill” report May 2022.
The 10 countries had the highest number of appeals linked to extreme weather, where climate was a major contributor to the appeal, according to the methodology outlined in the Oxfam (2022) Technical Note UN Humanitarian Appeals linked to Extreme Weather, 2000-2021.
The figure on fivefold increase in climate disasters is according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019) (WMO-No. 1267), Geneva.
The sum of cumulative carbon emissions of the 10 climate hotspots for 2020 is 0.002 trillion tons of carbon – that is 0.13 percent of the world emissions (1.69 trillion tons of carbon) in same year. Source Our World in Data.
The sum of cumulative carbon emissions of the G20 countries for 2020 is 1.299570755 trillion tons of carbon, which is 76.60 percent of global carbon emissions (1.696524177 trillion tons). Source Our World in Data.
The rank of 10 climate hotspots is 34 percent according to calculations of percentiles of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores of the 10 climate hotspots. ND-GAIN scores for 2020 retrieved from the ND-GAIN website.
For the fossil fuel industry’s daily average of US$2.8 billion in profits over the last 50 years, which is also an annual average of US$1.022 trillion, we used this 2022 article from the Guardian: Revealed: oil sector’s ‘staggering’ US$3bn-a-day profits for last 50 years. Based on the daily average, we calculated that less than 18 days of company profits would cover the full UN global humanitarian appeal for 2022 of US$48.82 billion. We used the annual average of US$1 trillion to calculate the returns from an extra 1% tax on fossil fuel profits (US$10 billion). The Guardian (2022). Revealed: oil sector’s ‘staggering’ US$3bn-a-day profits for last 50 years.
UN humanitarian appeal for 2022 is found at https://fts.unocha.org/appeals/overview/2022, last visited 30 August 2022. The food security portion of the appeal is US$15.9 billion, of which US$10.4 billion is unfunded as of 8 September 2022.

Oxfam responds to New Zealand International Climate Finance Strategy – Tuia te Waka a Kiwa

August 26, 2022

In response to Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Climate Change Minister James Shaw’s Aotearoa New Zealand International Climate Finance Strategy – Tuia te Waka a Kiwa, Oxfam Aotearoa Communications and Advocacy Director Dr Jo Spratt said:

“This is a substantial piece of work that was well-consulted, carefully considered and provides a solid framework to guide significant investment from the New Zealand Government. We are pleased to see a Pacific-led approach that makes way for our Pacific whānau to build climate resilience on their own terms.

“We are also pleased to see the Government acknowledge that too often communities are not included in how climate finance is allocated, and Minister Mahuta and Minister Shaw’s willingness to make sure communities are able to benefit from it. It is good to see a focus on equity and inclusion for the people who are so often left out and left behind.

“It is excellent to see recognition of both the economic and non-economic costs of climate destruction that communities cannot adapt to and the willingness of Aotearoa to promote countries’ access to finance to address loss and damage. We look forward to engaging with the Government on this in the lead-up to COP27 where loss and damage will be a focus. Other mechanisms, not just mitigation and adaptation, will be necessary to address the unavoidable loss and damage people in the Pacific and beyond face every day.”

Oxfam reacts to Commission’s advice on the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

July 28, 2022

Oxfam Aotearoa welcomes the latest advice from the Climate Change Commission to the Government calling for an urgent decision about how it will prioritise emissions reduction in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS). Oxfam Aotearoa Interim Executive Director Dr Jo Sprat said:

“The Commission is on the right track: All sectors of Aotearoa’s economy, including agriculture, need to do their fair share in reducing climate pollution.

“Aotearoa can’t just rely on planting permanent pine forests, or paying other countries to reduce emissions for us. The role of international carbon credits and carbon off-setting, including whether these will be integrated into the ETS or kept separate is as clear as mud. The Government must urgently provide clarity, just as the Commission recommends.

“What also concerns us is how the Government will make sure human rights are upheld, including indigenous and community land rights. If it is not done right, using international credits as an alternative to reducing our own carbon emissions from industries like agriculture could do serious harm to communities – especially those on the frontlines, such as our Pacific friends and family who experience the worst impacts of climate destruction every day.

“The Commission’s advice underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive plan for a just transition, in consultation with tangata whenua and all communities, to support a move to a less polluting and more equitable economy in Aotearoa. We couldn’t agree more. A just transition would make sure the rising cost of carbon pollution in the NZ ETS doesn’t unfairly fall on those least able to pay.”

Pacific leaders’ endorsement for ICJ advisory opinion bid must spur global groundswell

July 19, 2022

The support from Pacific leaders for an advisory opinion on climate change from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is welcomed and must begin a global groundswell of support ahead of the UN General Assembly in September, The Civil Society Alliance Supporting an Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on Climate Change (CSO ICJAO Alliance) said.

Led by the Vanuatu Government, and supported by a global alliance of civil society groups representing more than 1,500 civil society organisations in 130 countries, the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion is designed to provide an international legal framework for those experiencing the worst of the climate crisis to affect broad, accelerated change.

The campaign is in response to the human rights crisis caused by climate change, with hundreds of millions of people in vulnerable countries having their livelihoods, housing, food, water, sanitation, healthcare and the environment severely impacted.

The decision to support the campaign comes following dedicated efforts from Pacific youth and civil society, who recently held a Pacific Solidarity Festival calling on Pacific leaders and family across Australia and New Zealand to back the cause.

Vishal Prasad, Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change campaigner, said the endorsement from PIF leaders is a major step on the campaign’s voyage, which would help create a global groundswell.

“Pacific leaders have grasped the opportunity to help change the course of climate justice for the Pacific and around the world.

“The Advisory Opinion Campaign is well on the way to becoming a reality. We invite people from around the world to join us on this journey, because while this initiative started in the Pacific it is truly a global campaign. All countries in the United Nations will have the opportunity to vote for climate justice this year, but now is the crucial time for them to come out and show their support.

“This is a major step on our shared journey to link the impacts of climate change with our fundamental human rights, and welcome recognition from Pacific leaders of those rights. Pacific livelihoods, health, culture and the environment are at serious risk, and we are hopeful about having recourse to change the course through an advisory opinion.

“Supporting the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion costs nothing, but means everything to nations hit hardest by the climate crisis. This is an idea whose time has come.”

Steph Hodgins-May, Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner, said support for the ICJ advisory campaign is welcomed, but must be part of a broader effort from Australia to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

“Australia’s endorsement of the campaign for an advisory opinion on climate change from the ICJ is welcome, and demonstrates Australia is serious about both tackling the climate crisis, and strengthening its relationship with the Pacific.

“However, this endorsement cannot be viewed in isolation. To be a true Pacific family member, Australia must not only champion the journey towards climate justice through the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion, but also pursue more ambitious climate action by committing to no new coal and gas projects.”

Rose Kulak, Amnesty International Australia campaigner, said:

“By giving endorsement, Australia can now step up and be a global leader in creating support for the upcoming vote in the UN General Assembly. A majority vote is needed at the UN before the ICJ can provide its advisory opinion on the human rights impact of climate change. We need Australia to champion this on the world stage.

“Climate change is a human rights crisis of unprecedented proportions, affecting health, food, water, housing, livelihoods and life itself. It is a threat to not only individuals but to entire cultures and peoples. This support from Pacific leaders for an ICJ advisory opinion is a crucial step in shaping climate action from a much-needed human rights perspective.”

Joseph Zane Sikulu, 350.org Pacific Managing Director, said:

“Time and again, Pacific Island leaders have shown the world what true climate leadership looks like. This endorsement of the campaign for an ICJ advisory opinion is a welcome message that Pacific, New Zealand and Australian leaders want to be on the right side of history, and it must be backed up by action.

“This voyage did not start here, nor does it end with this endorsement. We carry on the legacy of climate leaders from Tuvalu, Marshall Islands and Kiribati who fought for a target of 1.5°C to stay alive, and our canoe will not rest until we secure a safe and liveable future. Now it is time for the rest of the world to follow suit.”

Ashwini Prabha, Board Chair of the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network, said:

“Supporting the ICJAO is a test for global solidarity on climate emergency in times of critical energy and geopolitical debates where many countries are expanding fossil fuels instead of phasing out, jeopardising our chances to remain below the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.

“All citizens around the world need their basic human rights protected and the ICJAO can ensure this recognition. Pacific civil society is counting on support from all regions around the globe in the months ahead culminating in a majority vote at the UN General Assembly in September in New York.”

Notes

See PIF’s official communique here.

Footing the Bill Report

June 7, 2022

800 percent increase in UN appeal needs for extreme weather-related emergencies – new Oxfam research.

The amount of money needed for UN humanitarian appeals involving extreme weather events like floods or drought is now eight times higher than 20 years ago — and donors are failing to keep up, reveals a new Oxfam brief today. For every US$2 needed for UN weather-related appeals, donor countries are only providing US$1.

Average annual extreme weather-related humanitarian funding appeals for 2000-2002 were at least US$1.6 billion and rose to an average US$15.5 billion in 2019-2021, an 819 percent increase.

Rich countries responsible for most of today’s climate change impacts have met only an estimated 54 percent of these appeals since 2017, leaving a shortfall of up to US$33 billion.

The countries with the most recurring appeals against extreme weather crises — over ten each — include Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Kenya, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan and Zimbabwe.

The report, Footing the Bill, says that the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change is putting more pressure on an already over-stretched and underfunded humanitarian system. The costs of the destruction from these storms, droughts and floods are also increasing inequality; people in poorer communities and low-income countries are the worst hit yet they lack the systems and funding that wealthier countries have to cope with the effects. The richest one percent of people on Earth are emitting twice as much carbon pollution as the poorest half of humanity.

The UN appeals focus on the most urgent humanitarian needs, but that barely scratches the surface of the real costs in loss and damage that climate change is now wreaking on countries’ economies.

The economic cost of extreme weather events in 2021 alone was estimated to be US$329 billion globally, the third highest year on record. This is nearly double the total aid given by rich nations to the developing world that year.

The costs of loss and damage to low- and middle-income countries — for instance, the money needed to rebuild homes and hospitals or provide shelter, food and emergency cash transfers after a cyclone — could reach between US$290 billion and US$580 billion a year by 2030. This does not account for non-economic losses such as the loss of life, cultures and ways of living, and biodiversity.

UN appeals represent just a small part of the costs of climate disasters for people who are especially vulnerable and they only reach a fraction of the people who are suffering. Oxfam’s research shows that UN appeals cover only about 474 million of the estimated 3.9 billion people in low- and middle-income countries affected by extreme weather-related disasters since 2000, equivalent to one in eight people.

“Human activity has created a world 1.1˚C warmer than pre-industrial levels and we are now suffering the consequences. More alarming still, we will overshoot the 1.5˚C safety threshold on current projections. The cost of climate destruction will keep rising and our failure now to cut emissions will have catastrophic consequences for humanity. We can’t ignore the huge economic and non-economic losses and damages that underlie this picture — the loss of life, homes, schools, jobs, culture, land, Indigenous and local knowledge, and biodiversity,” said Oxfam Aotearoa Climate Campaign Lead Alex Johnston.

“This is the climate chaos we have long been warning about. Many countries that are being hardest-hit by climate change are already facing crises including conflict, food inflation, and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is leading to rapidly rising inequality, mass displacement, hunger and poverty,” said Johnston.

Humanitarian disasters affect men differently than women, who face long-standing inequalities that undermine their ability to cope. Women’s rights and progress towards gender equity are threatened with every disaster. The UNDP estimates that 80 percent of people being displaced by climate change are women.

“Poor countries cannot be expected to foot the bill, and increasing aid — while helpful — is not alone the answer. Paying the cost of climate-driven loss and damages should be on the basis of responsibility — not charity. Rich countries, rich people and big corporations most responsible for causing climate change must pay for the harm they are causing,” said Johnston.

Rich and industrialised countries have contributed around 92 percent of excess historical emissions and 37 percent of current emissions. Africa’s current emissions stand at just 4 percent; The Pacific Islands account for only 0.03 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Ethiopia — where more than 24.4 million people now face severe levels of hunger and food insecurity — are together responsible for just 0.1 percent of current global emissions.

Rich industrialised nations have stymied loss and damage finance negotiations for years. At COP26 in Glasgow, they rejected developing countries’ calls for a new finance facility to address loss and damage and instead agreed to a three-year ‘Glasgow Dialogue’ to discuss future arrangements. “This just added insult to injury,” Johnston said.

Ahead of 56th sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) in Germany, which includes the first ‘Glasgow Dialogue’ on loss and damage since COP26, Oxfam urges:

Rich country governments like Aotearoa New Zealand to pledge bilateral finance to address loss and damage, in addition to existing climate finance and ODA commitments.
All governments to agree to establish and fund a finance facility for loss and damage at COP27, with annual contributions based on responsibility for causing climate change and capacity to pay.
All governments to agree to make loss and damage a core element of the UNFCCC’s Gender Action Plan.

Notes

Photos and video from Burkina Faso are available for download.

Download Oxfam’s brief Footing the Bill and our methodology note.

See also Oxfam Aotearoa and Oxfam Australia’s 2021 report titled Breaking Through Red Lines which outlines the loss and damage implications across the Pacific, and also includes loss and damage Māori communities within Aotearoa are experiencing due to climate destruction. The Pacific Islands is responsible for just 0.03 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The countries with the most recurring appeals linked to extreme weather (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Kenya, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, Chad, Sudan and Zimbabwe) account for 1.4 percent of global emissions.

According to Aon, the total economic cost of extreme weather events in 2021 is estimated at US$329 billion globally, the third-highest year on record, behind 2017 and 2005.

Recent data from Oxfam shows that the wealthiest 1 percent of humanity are responsible for twice as many emissions as the poorest 50 percent, and that by 2030, their carbon footprints are in fact set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

Rich nations provided US$178.9 billion in official development assistance (ODA) in 2021. This is equivalent to 0.33 percent of donors’ combined gross national income (GNI) and still below the UN target of 0.7 percent ODA to GNI.

According to estimations by Markandya and González-Eguino, the estimated costs of loss and damage by 2030 range from US$290 billion to US$580 billion, and according to Climate Analytics from US$400 to US$431 billion.

One person is likely dying of hunger every 48 seconds in drought-ravaged Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

Emissions Reduction Plan reaction

May 17, 2022

Oxfam Aotearoa Campaigns Lead Alex Johnston said:

“While this plan starts to trend emissions downwards, we need to be slamming on the brakes, not slowly taking our foot off the accelerator.

“We acknowledge progress has been made to get all government departments to understand the task of tackling climate change, but there’s a failure to produce policies that will meaningfully reduce pollution from industrial agriculture – responsible for half our emissions.

“We’ve got another agriculture institute for developing new techno-fixes, but no real policies that will shift production systems away from intensive, volume-based dairy. The hidden consequence of this is paying billions of dollars to other countries – countries experiencing the worst impacts of the climate destruction we caused – to pick up our slack.

“When the world is required to halve emissions by 2030 to keep within 1.5 degrees, a wealthy country like New Zealand saying we’re only going to reduce them by 18 percent in that time is a death sentence for those set to experience the worst impacts of climate change.

“Going slow and steady is a decision that treat the lives of billions of people who are forced into hunger from climate fuelled drought, storms and displacement as expendable. Farmers in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia have lost crops and entire herds of livestock to an exceptionally long and severe drought. Millions of people in East Africa are now on the brink of a hunger catastrophe.

“We know what’s needed to tackle emissions from agriculture: we need big dairy and beef to be brought into the Emissions Trading Scheme at a much stronger emissions price, and turn around the farming sector, from being Aotearoa’s biggest polluter, into a solution for tackling climate change and restoring nature. That involves a phase out of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, and investing billions in organic, regenerative agriculture.”