Climate Breakdown

Oxfam Aotearoa: NDC announcement a betrayal to Pacific Island countries

October 31, 2021

The New Zealand government’s NDC announcement is a betrayal to Pacific Island countries and those on the frontlines of climate change says Oxfam Aotearoa Executive Director Rachael Le Mesurier. The Government’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target sets the bar for New Zealand’s contribution to keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees under the Paris Agreement. However, Le Mesurier says that the target is not good enough:

“Let’s be real here, this is not our fair share. The government has changed the way they count our emissions reductions to make them look like they are doing more than they are. This is a government that has said time and again that climate change is our nuclear-free moment. Instead of leading the fight against climate breakdown, they are hiding their inaction by changing the goal posts.

“Our previous target was to reduce emissions to 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 on an emissions budget basis. The Climate Change Commission (CCC) recommended that to be consistent with 1.5 degrees, New Zealand’s new target needed to be ‘much more than 36 per cent’ measured on an emissions budget basis, yet it is only 41 per cent,” Le Mesurier said.

Rather than showing the ambition we need, what the government have done today is change the way they measure their emissions from an emissions budget basis to a point year basis. This means they can make it look like they have increased the target by more than they have.

Last year, an Oxfam report found that to meet its fair share, New Zealand’s updated target needed to be between 80–133 per cent emissions reductions below 1990 levels by 2030. Le Mesurier says that the government has had all the science, advice and the tools to get this right, but this time has failed Aotearoa, failed our Pacific whanau and failed as a global citizen:

“We’ve shown that we can play our part in global efforts with a recent four-fold increase in climate finance for countries most vulnerable to climate change. But now we need to get our own house in order. Each Minister in Cabinet needs to take responsibility for that fact that our current plans for domestic action are completely inadequate. New Zealand is not taking the action necessary for the country to do its bit to protect our planet and our people from significant harm.”

Earlier this year the harrowing sixth IPCC report revealed human influence has warmed the planet almost beyond repair, issuing what the UN Secretary General called a “red alert” for humanity that world leaders must urgently act on.

“The New Zealand government has shown us today that they are not committed to limiting the worst effects of climate change for people on the frontlines, nor to keeping a 1.5 degrees future in reach. For that to change, some bold action needs to happen to tackle our industries with the biggest footprint domestically, including the agriculture sector.”

/ENDS

Notes:

New Zealand’s NDC target of 50 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 on a point year basis equates to 41 per cent on an emissions budget basis. This is a mere 5 per cent beyond the Climate Commission’s absolute bottom line.
The Government’s creative accounting is compounded by the fact that New Zealand continues to measure its net reductions against an inflated baseline by using gross emissions in 2005. On a net-net basis, this target is more like 27-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Oxfam Aotearoa is calling the new NDC target a “scandal” as the vast majority of it is being met by offshore carbon credits – no country in the world is planning to rely on these to the extent that New Zealand is to meet their NDC.
Ardern claims that this new NDC target is New Zealand’s fair share; however, it is not consistent with keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees under the Paris Agreement, let alone our fair share of effort

Case of the Century decision Climate: the next five-year term(s) under judicial supervision

October 15, 2021

The following is a joint release from Fondation Nicolas Hulot, Greenpeace France, Notre Affaire à Tous, and Oxfam France:

The administrative court of Paris has ruled in favour of the Case of the Century: successive governments will now be obliged to prove themselves and comply strictly with France’s climate commitments. The French State is also ordered to repair the damage to the environment caused by its inaction, by December 31, 2022. This ground-breaking judgement is binding on the current government, but also on the future tenant of the Elysée. This decision marks the start of a new era for France’s climate policies: never again will any President get away with climate inaction without placing the State outside of the law.

Climate justice has forced its way onto the political agenda

For the Case of the Century organisations: “From now on, any President who does not respect France’s climate commitments condemns it twice: first by exposing its population to the increasingly devastating and costly impacts of climate change, and secondly by exposing it to further sentencing by the courts.”

The next five-year presidential term is the last chance, and the forthcoming elections will be decisive. The organisations Notre Affaire à Tous, la Fondation Nicolas Hulot, Greenpeace France and Oxfam France therefore call on all candidates to demonstrate, with figures to back them up, how they intend to extricate the State from illegality and comply with climate objectives. The organisation will evaluate these roadmaps before the presidential election.

To comply with its Climate commitments, the French State should, for instance:

Reach 700 000 building renovations per year;
Increase the Railway traffic by 20 to 25% compared to 2018;
Multiply by 4 the available surface in organic agriculture.

14 months to catch up on the climate delay which has been accumulating for 3 years Between 2015 and 2018, France emitted 15 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in excess of its legislative commitments. An offence which placed the State in a position of unlawfulness and which the country’s leaders are now obliged to put right before the end of next year. 15 million tonnes of greenhouse gases will therefore have to be subtracted from France’s “carbon budget” for 2022. This decision therefore forces the State to double up on the reduction of emissions planned between 2021 and 2022.

For the Case of the Century organisations: “As of today, any divergence from the greenhouse gas reduction plan may be sanctioned by the courts in the case of any further delay. The State now has an obligation of result for the climate. We have the judges who took on board the climate issue to thank for this necessary break with climate policy as it stands today, as well as the unprecedented mobilisation of the 2.3 million people who supported the Case of the Century.”

It is in this context that the Case of the Century staged a demonstration this morning at the Trocadero in Paris, with two messages in giant lettering: “Climate: justice is on our side!” and “Presidential candidates: no climate, no presidential term (Candidat.es: Pas de Climat, pas de mandat)”.

Poorer nations expected to face up to US$75 billion six-year shortfall in climate finance: Oxfam 

September 22, 2021

Wealthy nations are expected to fall up to US$75 billion ($106.6 billion) short of fulfilling their long-standing pledge to mobilise just over US$100 billion each year from 2020 to 2025 to help the most vulnerable countries adapt to the dangerous effects of climate change and reduce their emissions, according to estimates by Oxfam today.

This analysis comes ahead of informal climate talks between world leaders at the UN General Assembly later today – a key moment to get the target back on track ahead of the COP26 UN Climate Summit in Glasgow in November. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released new data on Friday showing that developed countries provided only around US$80 billion in climate finance in 2019.

Based on current pledges and plans, Oxfam estimates that wealthy governments will continue to miss the $100 billion goal and reach only US$93 billion to US$95 billion per year by 2025, five years after the goal should have been met. This means that climate-vulnerable countries could miss out on between US$68 billion and US$75 billion in total over the six-year target period.  

Hot and cold temperatures are estimated to kill five million people every year, accounting for more than nine percent of human deaths globally, and this is expected to increase as heat-related deaths rise due to climate change. Climate change could trigger economic losses double that of the pandemic, but it is not being treated with the same urgency. In 2020, the EU, UK, US, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand spent more than $21 trillion on COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages ―equivalent to meeting the climate finance goal 151 times over. At the same time, total global military spending rose by 2.6 percent since 2019 to just under US$2 trillion ―nearly 20 times more than the climate finance goal. So far, New Zealand has spent $48.4 billion on the Covid-19 pandemic, which is more than 160 times its fair share of the US$100 billion goal according to an Oxfam report.

Several countries, including Aotearoa New Zealand, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands have made no new climate finance pledges. While some countries, including the US, Canada and Germany, have increased their pledges in recent months their efforts have not been enough. At the G7 Summit in June, leaders repeated their commitment to narrow the gap, but those of France, Australia and Japan failed to increase their contributions above current levels.

Climate finance is one of the three key pillars of the Paris Agreement and vital to global efforts to tackle the climate crisis and its impacts. Globally, 2020 tied for the hottest year on record, with 98.4 million people affected by floods, storms and other climate-related disasters and caused economic losses of at least $242.8 billion.  

At a virtual talanoa of the Pacific Island Forum last week, Tuvalu’s Finance Minister Seve Paeniu said that Tuvalu needs more than $425 million for coastal protection alone. For countries like Tuvalu, transitioning to clean energy and adapting to climate change impacts —some of which are already irreversible— cannot happen without this support. Many developing countries are already being forced to spend large amounts of their public finances on combating climate change. For example: 

Fiji has an average asset loss of more than FJ$500 million ($340 million) per year due to tropical cyclones and floods. The World Bank estimates that almost FJ$9.3 billion ($13.6 billion), almost 100 percent of GDP, in investment is required over the next 10 years to strengthen Fiji’s resilience to climate change and natural hazards for decades to come.
Over the next 50 years Solomon Islands is likely to incur annual average direct losses equivalent to 3 percent of GDP, has a 50 percent chance of experiencing an event causing a loss exceeding 35 percent of GDP.

Poor families in rural Bangladesh spend nearly $2 billion a year on preventing climate-related disasters or repairing the damage caused by them —twice as much as the government and over 12 times more than Bangladesh receives in multilateral international climate financing. The average person in Bangladesh produces 24 times less CO2 than the average person in the US.

Oxfam Aotearoa Campaign Lead Alex Johnston said:

“The pandemic has shown that our government can swiftly mobilise billions of dollars to respond to a crisis — it is clearly a question of political will. Let’s be clear, we are in a climate crisis. It is wreaking havoc across the globe and requires the same decisiveness and urgency. Millions of people from Guatemala to Fiji have already lost their homes, livelihoods and loved ones because of turbo-charged storms and chronic droughts, caused by a climate crisis they did little to cause.

“Wealthy nations, including New Zealand, must live up to their promise made twelve years ago and put their money where their mouths are. We need to see real funding increases now, within a rising overseas aid budget. It’s particularly critical that New Zealand steps up in this area ahead of COP26 to show a commitment to increased action given that our Emissions Reduction Plan won’t be ready in time. Developing countries need to see that we have skin in the game, and climate finance, alongside a greatly increased 2030 climate target, is one of the ways we can show that.”

According to the UN Environment Program, annual adaptation costs in developing countries are expected to reach US$140 billion to 300 billion ($199 billion to $211 billion) per year by 2030, and US$280 billion to 500 billion ($398 billion to $710.8 billion) by 2050.

With the COP26 UN climate talks in Glasgow just over a month away, Oxfam is calling on New Zealand and other wealthy countries to urgently increase their pledges of climate finance to deliver on their target. At least 50 percent of climate finance should be spent on adaptation.  

/Ends  

Notes

Oxfam’s methodology and datasheet on the shortfall in climate finance are available on request. 

In 2009, developed countries agreed to contribute US$100 billion a year in climate finance to poorer countries by 2020. At the Paris climate summit in 2015 (COP21), this goal was extended to last through to 2025. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, they agreed to negotiate a yet-higher amount that would kick in from 2025. 

Climate Week NYC is taking place 20-26 September. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will convene a closed-door meeting of world leaders at the UN General Assembly later today (Monday). 

A study led by Monash University and published in The Lancet Planetary Health estimates that more than five million extra deaths a year can be attributed to abnormal hot and cold temperatures. The study found deaths related to hot temperatures increased in all regions from 2000 to 2019, indicating that global warming due to climate change will make this mortality figure worse in the future. 

The economies of the G7 nations could see an average loss of 8.5 percent annually by 2050 ―equivalent to $4.8 trillion― if leaders do not take more ambitious action to tackle climate change, according to Oxfam’s analysis of research by the Swiss Re Institute. 

The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Database summarizes the key fiscal measures governments have announced or taken in selected economies in response to COVID-19.  

Country	Total spending on COVID-19 fiscal measures (US$ billion)	Equivalent to meeting the $100 billion climate finance goal X times
EU (total)	5,527.40	55
EU (national spending)	4,166.02	42
EU (central funds)	1,361.38	14
Australia	273.89	3
Canada	326.06	3
Japan	2,259.90	23
United Kingdom	892.95	9
United States	5,838.30	58
EU, UK, US, Canada, Australia & Japan	15,118.50	151

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that total military expenditure rose to $1,981 billion in 2020 (nearly $2 trillion or $2,000 billion), an increase of 2.6 percent from 2019. 

Oxfam’s Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020 estimates that 80 percent ($47 billion) of all reported public climate finance (2017-18) was not provided in the form of grants, but mostly as loans and other non-grant instruments. Around half of this ($24 billion) was non-concessional, offered on ungenerous terms requiring higher repayments from poor countries. Oxfam calculated that the ‘grant equivalent’ ―the true value of the loans once repayments and interest are deducted― was less than half of the amount reported. 

According to NASA, 2020 was the hottest year on record, effectively tying 2016, the previous record. 

Apart from the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 was dominated by climate-related disasters. These were largely responsible for the 389 recorded events, which resulted in 15,080 deaths, 98.4 million people affected, and economic losses of at least US$171.3 billion. 

A recent report from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre highlighted that from 2008 to 2019, Fiji has been devastated with 30 climate induced disaster events that have displaced 153,000 people. Average annual asset loses due to tropical cyclones and floods are estimated at more than FJ$500 million per year which is about five per cent of Fiji GDP. The World Bank has estimated that almost FJ$9.3 billion (almost 100 percent of GDP) in investment is required over the next 10 years to strengthen Fiji’s resilience to climate change and natural hazards for decades to come.

Oxfam estimates New Zealand’s fair share of the collective goal would range between NZ$301.5m and $540m per year.  In 2018, New Zealand committed to providing $300 million in climate finance over four years. It has likely exceeded this target, but have not committed to any increase beyond 2022.

The UN Environment Program (UNEP) estimates that annual adaptation costs in developing countries are expected to reach $140-300 billion in 2030 and $280-500 billion in 2050. 

Oxfam Aotearoa and Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade announce partnership

August 11, 2021

A historic moment for Oxfam Aotearoa and New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) as both sign a partnership for a new programme called Kōtui that will support our Pacific neighbours.

The total $12.4 million investment will help those people who have the least power to get the resources and opportunities they need to keep themselves and their families safe, well and cared for through climate breakdown and extreme weather.

Anna Mosley, International Portfolio Manager at Oxfam Aotearoa said that the joint initiative will change so many lives for the better, and expressed how proud Oxfam is to be working with civil society organisations across the Pacific and Timor-Leste that have a wealth of experience and deep connections to communities:

“Our partner organisations in the Pacific will bridge the gap between communities and policy makers, making sure that governments are responsive to those hit hardest by climate change,” said Mosley. “Across the Pacific, women are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because they are more likely to depend on gardening and selling produce rather than formal employment, and because they have less say in decision making and fewer resources.

“There is international funding available for climate change adaptation, but it’s not always reaching those women who need it most, or meeting their needs. Kōtui will help women to negotiate better access to the resources they need.”

MFAT’s Partnerships Manager Salli Davidson said about the partnership and the Kōtui programme:

“We’re excited to be embarking on a new phase of our partnership with Oxfam Aotearoa. With MFAT’s $9.7m co-investment, together we will make a difference in the lives of women and girls in Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Tuvalu.

“Within the next five years, we expect they will be more actively involved in local governance so that communities, including the vulnerable and marginalised, are more resilient to climate change. Oxfam Aotearoa’s resources and relationships will help to achieve this.”

Kōtui will improve women’s access to key adaptation resources – climate finance, land, water, services, information – building sustainable resilience for 238,000 people across Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Tuvalu.

Oxfam’s partners in the Pacific and Timor-Leste also expressed their excitement for the programme and partnership:

Raijeli Nicole, Regional Director at Oxfam in the Pacific said:

“Our excitement for the Kōtui programme stems from our own experience in partnering with others in building more inclusive, accountable and transformative governance mechanisms that deliver to marginalised groups, particularly women and girls in all their diversity, the promise of full agency and autonomy.

“We are incredibly excited to be a partner with Oxfam Aotearoa as well as with local NGOs WARA and SICAN in Solomon Islands, and Touching the Untouchables in PNG to implement this programme.”

Dr Alice Aruheeta Pollard, co-founder of the West ’Are’Are Rokotanikeni Association (WARA), said:

“We are looking forward to this new partnership with Oxfam. It is a positive step forward that will enable WARA to expand its important work of reaching out to rural communities to empower women and shift norms and expectations around the role of women. Making decisions together will mean that rural families and communities in Solomon Islands are better able to prepare for and cope with king tide/serious high tide and other climate change impacts.”

Fausto Belo Ximenes, Country Director of Oxfam in Timor-Leste said:

“We are honoured to be working with MFAT and Oxfam Aotearoa on this very critical and timely programme initiative – Kōtui – that will undoubtedly bring positive changes to the lives of women, girls and other vulnerable groups in Timor-Leste and the Pacific Region as a whole. We believe Kōtui is critical to building our vision of a truly just, inclusive and sustainable Timor-Leste.”

/ENDS

Notes:

What is Kōtui? The te reo Māori word kōtui means the binding together, or interlacing, during weaving. The woven mat represents dialogue and joint problem-solving in Pacific countries and in Timor-Leste. It is an appropriate symbol for a programme focused on inclusive and equitable governance. The term “haere kōtui” describes people walking together arm in arm. This programme seeks to walk together with people across the wider Pacific, binding us together to weave a more resilient future. The purpose of the Kōtui

MFAT will fund $9.7 million of the programme, whereas Oxfam will fundraise the remaining $2.7 million through public donations
Read more about Kōtui here.
Oxfam Aotearoa is a part of the wider Oxfam confederation and works specifically within Aotearoa New Zealand and the Pacific. Much of the work Oxfam Aotearoa does includes working towards ending gender inequality, tackling climate change in the fight against poverty and inequality, and more recently, responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Oxfam helps people build better futures for themselves, hold the powerful accountable, save lives in disasters, and create lasting solutions.

Oxfam reaction to IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report

August 10, 2021

Responding to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Oxfam Aotearoa Executive Director Rachael Le Mesurier said:

“Amid a world in parts burning, in parts drowning and in parts starving, the IPCC today tables the most compelling wake-up call yet for global industry to switch from oil, gas, coal and intensive agriculture to renewables and sustainable food production. Governments must use law to compel this urgent change. Citizens must use their own political power and behaviors to push big polluting corporations and governments in the right direction. There is no Plan B.

“The world’s highest-level of political and scientific consensus, the IPCC, describes humanity’s slimmest chance to keep global warming to 1.5°C and avert planetary ruin. It sets the agenda for a make-or-break climate summit in Glasgow later this year. This report is yet more unimpeachable proof that climate change is happening now, and that global warming is already one of the most harmful drivers of worsening hunger and starvation, migration, poverty and inequality all over the world. 

“In recent years, with 1°C of global heating, there have been deadly cyclones in the Pacific and Central America, floods here in Aotearoa and Europe, huge locust swarms across Africa, and unprecedented heatwaves and wildfires across Australia and the US―all turbo-charged by climate change. Over the past 10 years, more people have been forced from their homes by extreme weather-related disasters than for any other single reason―20 million a year, or one person every two seconds. The number of climate-related disasters has tripled in 30 years. Since 2000, the UN estimates that 1.23 million people have died and 4.2 billion have been affected by droughts, floods and wildfires. Kiwis are no exception.

“The richest one percent of people in the world, approximately 63 million people, are responsible for more than twice as much carbon pollution as the 3.1 billion people who make up the poorest half of humanity. The people with money and power will be able to buy some protection against the effects of global warming for longer than people without those privileges and resources ―but not forever. No one is safe. This report is clear that we are at the stage now when self-preservation is either a collective process or a failed one. 

“Global warming is a base factor behind all of today’s huge regressions in human development. The main perpetrators of global warming ―that is, rich countries like New Zealand that have reaped massive wealth by burning fossil fuels and intensifying agriculture― must be the ones to cut their emissions first, fastest and furthest. They must also pay their climate debt to developing countries by scaling up finance to help them adapt to the effects of climate change and transition to clean energy. Other major polluters don’t get a free pass and must also drastically cut emissions. The world has as much to gain in terms of human safety, development, opportunity and jobs by running a global economy on renewables and sustainable food production, as it has to lose in continuing dirty business-as-usual.

“Very few nations ―and none of the world’s wealthy nations, New Zealand included― have submitted climate plans consistent with keeping warming below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. If global emissions continue to increase, the 1.5°C threshold could be breached as early as the next decade. The IPCC report must spur governments to act together and build a fairer and greener global economy to ensure the world stays within 1.5°C of warming. They must cement this in Glasgow. Rich country governments must meet their $100 billion-a-year promise to help the poorest countries grapple with the climate crisis ―according to Oxfam, not only have they collectively failed to deliver on their promise, but New Zealand is one of the lowest contributors per capita, far below its fair share of the collective goal.”

/ENDS

Notes:

Extreme weather-related disasters were the number one driver of internal displacement over the last decade, forcing more than 20 million people a year ―one person every two seconds― to leave their homes. For more information, download Oxfam’s briefing Forced from Home.

According to the UN, a sharp rise in the number of droughts, floods and wildfires has claimed 1.23 million lives and affected 4.2 billion people since 2000.

The richest one percent were responsible for 15 percent of emissions added to the atmosphere between 1990 and 2015 ―more than all the citizens of the EU and more than twice that of the poorest half of humanity (7 percent). The richest 10 percent accounted for over half (52 percent) of emissions during this time. For more information, download Oxfam’s report Confronting Carbon Inequality. New Zealanders’ carbon footprint is more than 13 times that of the global poorest 50% (9.3 vs 0.69 tCO2/year)

Oxfam’s Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020 offers an assessment of progress towards the USD100 billion goal. It considers how climate finance is being counted and spent, where it is going, how close we are to the USD100 billion goal, and what lessons need to be learned for climate finance post-2020. Oxfam Aotearoa’s Standing with the Frontlines 2020 report outlines New Zealand’s fair share of the USD 100 billion goal.

Oxfam recently reported that there has been a six-fold increase in people suffering famine-like conditions since pandemic began.

Oxfam supports a range of climate projects across the world, and works with local communities most impacted by the climate crisis. For example, we are helping rural farming communities in Timor-Leste earn a decent income, pioneering a cash transfer program in Vanuatu that uses blockchain to provide quick and targeted support to households worst hit by cyclones, and connecting civil society organisations in Solomon Islands to ensure that climate adaptation funds reach those who need it most.

Tightening the Net Report

August 3, 2021

Land-hungry ‘net zero’ schemes could force an 80 percent rise in global food prices and more hunger while allowing rich nations and corporates to continue “dirty business-as-usual”

Using land alone to remove the world’s carbon emissions to achieve ‘net zero’ by 2050 would require at least 1.6 billion hectares of new forests, equivalent to 60 times the size of New Zealand or more than all the farmland on the planet, reveals a new Oxfam report today.

Oxfam’s report “Tightening the Net” says that too many governments and corporations are hiding behind unreliable, unproven and unrealistic ’carbon removal’ schemes in order to claim their 2050 climate change plans will be ‘net zero’. At the same time, they are failing to cut emissions quickly or deeply enough to avert catastrophic climate breakdown. Their sudden rush of ‘net zero’ promises are over-relying on vast swathes of land to plant trees in order to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

To limit warming below 1.5°C and prevent irreversible damage from climate change, the world collectively should be on track to cut carbon emissions by 45 percent by 2030 from 2010 levels, with the sharpest being made by the biggest emitters. Countries’ current plans to cut emissions will achieve only around 1 percent reduction in global emissions by 2030.

The climate crisis is already devastating agriculture globally. It is driving worsening humanitarian crises, hunger and migration. Poor and vulnerable people, particularly women farmers and Indigenous people, are being affected first and worst. It is undermining all efforts including Oxfam’s to tackle inequality and poverty around the world.

Nafkote Dabi, Climate Change Lead for Oxfam, said: “’Net zero’ should be based on ‘real zero’ targets that require drastic and genuine cuts in emissions, phasing out fossil fuels and investing in clean energy and supply chains. Instead, too many ‘net zero’ commitments provide a fig leaf for climate inaction. They are a dangerous gamble with our planet’s future.”

“Nature and land-based carbon removal schemes are an important part of the mix of efforts needed to stop global emissions, but they must be pursued in a much more cautious way. Under current plans, there is simply not enough land in the world to realise them all. They could instead spark even more hunger, land grabs and human rights abuses, while polluters use them as an alibi to keep polluting.”

Oxfam recently reported that global food prices have risen by 40 percent in the past year, which has contributed to 20 million more people falling into catastrophic conditions of hunger and a six-fold increase in famine-like conditions. If used at scale, land-based carbon removal methods such as mass tree planting could see global food prices surging by 80 percent by 2050.

In the run-up to the Glasgow COP this year, more than 120 countries, including the world’s top three emitters ―the US, China and the EU― have pledged to reach ‘net-zero’ by mid-century. Most of these pledges are vague and not backed by measurable plans.

Even a country as small as Switzerland could need land nearly equivalent to the entire island of Puerto Rico to plant enough trees to meet its ‘net zero’ target. Switzerland has recently struck carbon-offsetting deals with Peru and Ghana.
Colombia has a ‘net zero’ target that requires reforesting over one million hectares of land by 2030, even though rates of deforestation continue to climb.

One-fifth of the world’s 2,000 largest publicly listed corporations now also have ‘net-zero’ goals that are similarly dependent upon land-based carbon sinks.

The ‘net-zero’ climate promises of four of the world’s largest oil and gas corporations ―BP, Eni, Shell and TotalEnergies― could require them foresting an area of land equivalent to more than twice the size of the UK to achieve net zero by 2050.
Oxfam’s report shows that if the entire energy sector ―whose emissions continue to soar― were to set similar ‘net-zero’ targets, it would require an area of land nearly the size of the Amazon rainforest, equivalent to a third of all farmland worldwide.
Shell alone will need land the size of Honduras by 2030.

Dabi added: “‘Net-zero’ might sound like a good idea, but the oil majors’ climate plans reveal just how much land these distant ‘net-zero’ targets are banking on. Over-relying on planting trees and as-yet-unproven technology instead of genuinely shifting away from fossil fuel-dependent economies is a dangerous folly. We are already seeing the devastating consequences of climate delay. We will be hoodwinked by ‘net zero’ targets if all they amount to are smokescreens for dirty business-as-usual.”

With less than 100 days left until the UN climate talks in Glasgow, governments and corporations need a much stronger focus on swiftly and deeply cutting carbon emissions in the near-term, starting at home and with their own operations and supply chains. If ‘net-zero’ targets are used, they should be measurable, transparent and prioritise dramatically slashing emissions by 2030. Removing emissions is not a substitute for cutting emissions, and these should be counted separately.

“Land is a finite and precious resource. It is what millions of small-scale farmers and Indigenous people around the world depend upon for their livelihoods. We all depend upon the good stewardship of land and for our own food security. The whole world benefits from protecting forests and safeguarding the land rights of farmers and Indigenous peoples,” said Dabi.

Notes to editor:

Download Oxfam’s report: “Tightening the Net”

According to the IPCC, large-scale afforestation could increase food prices by about 80 percent by 2050. This would push millions more people into hunger.

The Amazon is the world’s largest tropical rainforest, spanning over 5.5 million square kilometres.