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COVID-19 death toll four times higher in lower-income countries than rich ones

3 million people died since the Omicron variant emerged, shattering perceptions that the pandemic is over

The COVID-19 death toll has been four times higher in lower-income countries than in rich ones, according to a new report published today by Oxfam on behalf of the People’s Vaccine Alliance as the world marks two years since the World Health Organisation declared the pandemic.

While the pandemic has been devastating for rich countries like Aotearoa New Zealand the world’s poorest countries have been hardest hit, with women and children bearing a disproportionate burden. Lack of testing and reporting means that very large numbers of deaths due to COVID-19 go unreported, especially in the poorest countries. Modelling using measures of excess deaths estimates that 19.6 million people have died because of COVID-19, over three times the official death toll. Based on this analysis, Oxfam calculated that for every death in a high-income country, an estimated four other people have died in a low or lower-middle income country. On a per capita basis, deaths in low and lower middle-income countries are 31% higher than high income countries.

Oxfam also calculated that three million COVID-19 deaths have occurred in the three months since the Omicron variant emerged. The figure shatters perceptions that Omicron’s milder illness means the pandemic is coming to an end, as the more contagious variant tears through unvaccinated populations. By some estimates, over half of humanity is set to have been infected with COVID-19 by the end of March 2022. While most cases will be mild, the sheer number of cases means that numbers of deaths remain high. 

The report also outlines that:

  • Every minute, four children around the world have lost a parent or caregiver to COVID. In India alone, more than two million children lost a caregiver.
  • Women have been 1.4 times more likely to drop out of the labour force than men because of the pandemic.
  • 73 percent of people in high income countries are fully vaccinated while just six percent of people in low-income countries are.

However, not everyone has lost out due to the pandemic, with a new billionaire created every 26 hours. Of those new billionaires, 40 are COVID-19 billionaires, having made their billions profiting from vaccines, treatments, tests, and personal protective equipment (PPE). During the pandemic, the world’s 10 richest men have seen their fortunes double, rising at a rate of $1.3 billion a day, or $15,000 dollars a second.

Anna Marriott, Oxfam’s Health Policy Manager, said:

“After two years, we all want this pandemic to be over, but politicians in rich countries are exploiting that fatigue to ignore the devastating impact of COVID-19 that continues to this day.

“While incredibly effective vaccines provided hope, rich countries derailed the global vaccine rollout with nationalism, greed, and self-interest. Suggestions that we are entering a ‘post-COVID era’ ignore the continuing deaths in primarily lower-income countries that could be prevented by vaccines.”

Oxfam is part of the People’s Vaccine Alliance, a global coalition of nearly 100 organisations, campaigning for vaccine equity through support for a waiver of intellectual property rules on COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, and by making pharmaceutical companies share their science and knowhow with qualified producers in developing countries, so they are able to make their own doses.

Maaza Seyoum, Global South Convenor for the People’s Vaccine Alliance, said:

“Rich countries and corporations have tied up the global response to COVID-19 for their own benefit, leaving the global south to bear the brunt of this pandemic.

“As billions of people are still unable to access vaccines, some have the audacity to claim that the pandemic is over. That is an utter fallacy. Third and fourth doses in rich countries alone cannot erase the ever-rising death toll in lower-income countries.

“The charity approach to global vaccination has failed. Global south countries can and must manufacture vaccines and treatments for themselves – and they must maintain control of their own supplies. Rich countries must waive intellectual property rules on COVID-19 technologies and force big pharma to share the recipes.”

The report, Pandemic of Greed, warns that dangerous myths have fuelled the pandemic and excused a lack of bold and innovative policy action.

Gregg Gonsalves, Associate Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University, said:

“While Omicron tends to lead to a milder illness in many, the variant’s higher transmissibility means it can cut a deadly swath through countries, particularly among the unvaccinated. We may all be done with the coronavirus, but the coronavirus is not done with all of us.

“There must be a better way out of the suffering of the past two years, a way where everyone had access to vaccines, and no one was disposable. Public health decisions must be based on comprehensive evidence, not political agendas.

“The ‘post-COVID’ narrative emerging from rich countries will only worsen the complacency that has plagued the global fight against COVID-19. The global south understandably wants to take things into their own hands – and rich countries should let them.” 

Notes:

See the full report here.

Oxfam reaction to the IPCC’s Working Group II report on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

Responding to the publication of the IPCC’s Working Group II report assessing climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Oxfam’s Climate Policy Lead Nafkote Dabi said:

“This catalogue of pain, loss and suffering must be a wake-up call to everyone. The poorest who have done the least to contribute to climate change are suffering the most and we have a moral responsibility to help those communities adapt.

“Inequality is at the heart of today’s climate crisis —in the little over 100 days since COP26, the richest 1 percent of the world’s population have emitted much more carbon than the population of Africa does in an entire year. The super-rich are racing through the planet’s small remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Clearly the time has come to claw back their outsized wealth, power and consumption through wealth taxes or bans on carbon-hungry luxury goods like private jets and mega yachts.

“People living in the most affected countries do not need this report to tell them that the climate has changed. The highest price is already being paid by the cattle farmer in Somalia whose entire herd has died from thirst. By the mother sheltering in a school gym in the Philippines because her home was swept away just before Christmas.

“Regardless of how quickly governments and corporations cut carbon emissions, some warming is already baked-in from our past behaviour. It’s short sighted —and too late— to focus almost exclusively on mitigation. Billions of people need early warning systems, access to renewable energy and improved crop production now, not after we bring emissions under control.

“Only a fourth of all climate finance to vulnerable countries is for adaptation. The recent agreement at COP26 to double adaptation finance to US$40 billion by 2025 will help, but it’s nowhere near enough. The UN estimates that developing countries need US$70 billion every year to adapt, and those costs are not falling. Rich countries are overwhelmingly responsible for the climate crisis and must do more to support the poorest communities whose citizens struggle to meet their daily needs let alone prepare for the future.

“The other clear message from this report is that we are all in the driving seat. Our foot is on the accelerator and every squeeze produces more harmful gases and higher temperatures. Every ton of carbon we avoid increases the chances of a liveable planet —there is a huge difference between 1.5°C and 1.6°C of heating.

“We must adapt, and we must ensure the planet remains adaptable. Because runaway global heating will only lead to events that we cannot build back from —deaths, submerged homes, unfarmable wastelands, and mass migrations of desperate people.”

Notes:

Since COP26, the world’s richest 1 percent (79 million people) have emitted an estimated 1.7 billion tons in carbon emissions. This is more than the continent of Africa emits in an entire year, home to almost 1.4 billion people. According to the Global Carbon Project, Africa’s consumption emissions for 2019 (latest year available) were 1.03 billion tons (1.03 billion tons divided by 365 x 107 = 294 million tons emitted by Africa in 107 days). Calculations were made using Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute’s Confronting Carbon Inequality report.

Recent data from Oxfam shows that the wealthiest 1 percent of humanity are responsible for twice as many emissions as the poorest 50 percent, and that by 2030, their carbon footprints are in fact set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

According to Boat International, the superyacht industry has largely shrugged off the COVID-19 pandemic to record a third year of consistent order book growth. The 2022 Global Order Book records 1,024 projects in build or on order, a rise of 24.7 percent on last year’s 821.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), developed countries provided only around US$80 billion in climate finance in 2019. While the UN Secretary-General, Oxfam and others have called for half the money to be spent on adaptation, only about a quarter of total climate finance goes to adaptation.

The UN Environment Program (UNEP) estimates that annual adaptation costs in developing countries are expected to reach US$140 to US$300 billion in 2030 and US$280 to US$500 billion in 2050.

The UNFCCC estimates Somalia could need US$48.5 billion to adapt to climate change between now and 2030. Somalia’s GDP is less than US$7 billion (2020).

Climate Change Commission on trial in Aotearoa

Taking place virtually at the High Court in Wellington today, Lawyers for Climate Action (LCANZI) will challenge the advice the Climate Change Commission gave government in 2021. LCANZI’s claim is that the advice given is illegal and inconsistent with the science of keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees. The New Zealand government has been relying on this advice to set its 2030 emissions reduction target and emissions budgets.  

If LCANZI’s claim is successful, this would mean that the government decisions on the 2030 target and proposed emissions budgets are unlawful, and could force the government to dramatically increase the level of action it plans to take to reduce emissions in the forthcoming Emissions Reduction Plan.   

Oxfam Aotearoa campaign lead Alex Johnston said:

“We will only limit the worst impacts of climate change – the impact to homes, to the food we grow, and the places we love – if we take action at the scale necessary to keep global heating to within 1.5 degrees. 

“Families in Westport and Buller will tell you just how bad it can be. Farmers and communities in Vanuatu, Solomon Island’s and Timor Leste can tell you just how bad it can be. And this is with just one degree of warming.  

“This court case will show vast difference between what is needed to keep global heating to 1.5 degrees according to the IPCC and the level of action being planned by the New Zealand government. It’s clear when you look at the science, not enough is being done. 2030 is looking grim. 

The IPCC, the world’s authoritative scientific body on climate science, released its report on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability on the same day that this court case starts. This latest report will show the extent to which warming has increased climatic hazards, and how limits to adaptation are already being reached. Johnston says that hard facts presented in the report will make the lack of action and commitment from high-emitters more evident, and the calls for limiting warming as much as possible even stronger.  

“The government’s May Budget and finalising of the Emissions Reduction Plan must do more to cut climate pollution fairer and faster, particularly in our largest polluting sectors of agriculture and transport to protect the things we love and ensure those on the frontlines of climate change can thrive, not just survive,” said Johnston.

Other organisations have joined Oxfam including 350 Aotearoa, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Greenpeace Aotearoa, Pacific Climate Warriors, Parents for Climate Aotearoa, Students for Climate Solutions, and Wise Response Society.

350 Aotearoa Executive Director Alva Feldmeier said:

“Power to change our pathway to limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees is with the people! That is what this court case is proving – concerned and engaged lawyers are uniting and making the case that the Climate Change Commissions advice and the New Zealand government’s emissions budget are not in line with keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees. This trial is one of many examples that people are fighting back and holding the line for real climate solutions. We are no longer prepared to accept accounting tricks and neo-colonial approaches to reducing emissions carbon offsets.” 

Coal Action Network Cindy Baxter said: 

“This government has fudged its climate target: the 50% cut, if you remove the creative accounting, actually translates as a 22% by 2030 cut. This has been noted by international assessments, and is a shameful performance by our government. NZ is also relying on international carbon offsets to meet two thirds of our target, more than any other country on the planet. This is not what climate action should look like.”   

Greenpeace Senior Agriculture Campaigner Christine Rose said:

“Intensive dairying is to New Zealand what coal is to Australia and tar sands are to Canada. If this Government is serious about tackling the climate crisis, it must do what we already know will cut climate pollution from intensive dairying: phase out synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, substantially reduce stocking rates, and support farmers to shift to more plant-based regenerative organic farming” 

Students for Climate Solutions Co-Founder Ri Comer said:

“This case is exactly what is needed right now. The outcome could actually push Aotearoa to walk the talk that it’s been spewing for the past decade. Students like myself and all those who I work with might finally have a starting point for our legal careers, a precedent for climate action. This is the case that makes science policy. This is what will make Aotearoa keep its promise to our future generations and our Pacific neighbours.” 

EU countries fall short of their promises to stop tax havens

Today, European ministers updated the EU’s list of tax havens. The update added no countries to the blacklist and 10 countries to the greylist.

In response, Chiara Putaturo, Oxfam EU’s tax expert, said:

“A year ago, Open Lux uncovered the secrets of tax havens existing in Europe. Eight months later, the bombshell of the Pandora Papers made headlines around the world for blowing the lid on how the super-rich use tax havens to escape their tax bills. This week, a historic leak of Swiss banking records revealed how criminals, fraudsters and corrupt politicians used the secretive Swiss banking system to stash over US$8 billion in assets. Yet, none of this made a dent in EU rules on tax havens. The updated list does not challenge the persistent weaknesses of the process which exempts EU tax havens, and leaves secrecy jurisdictions, like Switzerland and the US, and zero tax rate countries, like the Cayman Islands, off the hook. Meanwhile, poorer countries, like Tunisia and Vietnam, are at risk of being blacklisted for not complying with top-down designed standards. 

“Greylisting the Bahamas, Bermuda and the British Virgin Islands means some real tax havens will be put under the magnifying glass. However, as long as the criteria are not reviewed, these countries can continue to operate as tax havens without any repercussions and can easily be completely delisted in the next review.

“How many more tax scandals must happen before the EU commits to a real reform? The current process is full of holes, lacks credibility and fails to put an end to tax avoidance. It is time for the EU to automatically blacklist zero and low tax rate countries, and to hold EU countries up to the same level of scrutiny as non-EU countries. The EU should also not use the blacklist in the future to force poorer countries, like Nigeria and Kenya, to sign up to the unfair OECD tax deal.”

Notes

  • Today, European governments published a revised EU tax havens list. The blacklist remained unchanged. The greylist added 10 countries. They are on the greylist as they fail to fulfil at least one of the criteria.
  • Read Oxfam’s December 2021 tax briefing for background on why and how the EU should reform their rules on tax havens. It includes what criteria should be on the list and why the EU’s proposal to introduce a criterion requiring countries to sign up to the OECD BEPS2 tax deal is unfair to poorer countries.
  • Last December, EU countries failed to agree on the reform of the Code of Conduct for Business Taxation. This failure undermines the ability to make progress in reviewing the definition of harmful tax regimes (Code of Conduct for Business Taxation) and the listing criteria (based on that definition) as put forward by the European Commission’s Communication on tax good governance.
  • The current blacklist does not include a single one of the world’s 20 worst corporate tax havens identified by Tax Justice Network in 2021, nor does it include any of the world’s 15 worst corporate tax havens identified by the still relevant 2016 Oxfam analysis. Among the 12 countries in the world with a zero per cent tax rate, none are blacklisted and 6 are now greylisted.
  • In previous analyses, Oxfam showed that some EU countries have characteristics of tax havens.
  • On Sunday, a journalist investigation, #SuissSecrets, revealed leaked data of Credit Suisse. It shows how the bank has helped problematic customers to hide large sums of money and how this practice is embedded in the Swiss secrecy system.
  • In the last year, two tax scandals have shown the weakness of the EU list: OpenLux and the Pandora Papers. OpenLux showed how tax havens exist in the EU, and the need for the EU to get its house in order. The Pandora Papers showed that some US states have become hubs of financial and corporate secrecy. The US is not compliant with the EU’s tax transparency criteria because it has not joined the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) and does not fully exchange information with other countries.
  • The EU has listed several low-income countries for failing to comply with international standards. This is despite these countries not being included in the discussions to set these standards or not having the capacity to implement the requirements to avoid being blacklisted.

EU leaders’ refuse to consider AU calls for a waiver on COVID-19 vaccines

Today, African Union and European Union leaders discussed the global vaccine rollout and calls to support the current proposal at the World Trade Organisation (WTO), tabled by India and South Africa and backed by 100 countries, to temporarily suspend intellectual property rules for Covid-19 vaccines, tests, and treatments.

In response, Peter Kamalingin, Oxfam Pan Africa Programme Director said:

“EU leaders continue to make a song and dance about the importance of their relationship with the African continent. Yet they once again put the interests of their profit-hungry pharmaceutical corporations first. The point-blank refusal to even consider the waiver at this summit is shameful and an insult to the millions of people in poorer countries who have needlessly lost loved ones because of vaccine inequity. While Europeans are getting boosters, nearly 90 per cent of Africans are yet to have their initial two doses.

“What Africans need is equal and fair access to vaccines. The ‘charity model’ has failed. Europe has already thrown away more vaccines than they donated to African countries this year. It is time for African leaders, governments and people around the world to seriously call into question Europe’s commitment to their so-called ‘partnership of equals’.

“Instead of siding with Big Pharma who are making billions out of vaccines, the EU and European countries must stop kicking the can down the road and support the full waiver and insist the vaccine technology is shared. This is the only way to ensure we can supply and distribute vaccines, tests and treatments – to everyone, everywhere and bring an end to this pandemic.”

 

Notes to editors

BioNTech to ship mobile vaccine factory containers to Africa

Responding to the announcement that BioNTech plans to ship mobile vaccine factory containers to Africa, which could start producing vaccines in the second half of 2023, Oxfam’s Health Policy Manager, Anna Marriott, said:

“Efforts to boost vaccine manufacturing in Africa are welcome but this is a long-term project and should not distract from the failure of rich country governments and companies, including Germany and BioNTech, to tackle today’s shameful vaccine inequality responsible for millions of needless deaths in poorer countries from this pandemic.

“It is unacceptable that BioNTech, along with other pharma giants, is ignoring the World health Organisation’s mRNA Hub in Africa which is ready to produce vaccines and expand manufacturing in favour of a BioNTech controlled vaccine container module that won’t be producing vaccines for well over a year.

“To date, Germany has exported just one per cent of its vaccines to the African continent. If Germany is serious about tackling vaccine inequality it must reverse its refusal to support the waiving of intellectual property rules for these life-saving pandemic tools and insist BioNTech transfer their technology now to the WHO so that existing manufacturers across Africa, Latin America and Asia can make them.

“Serious questions must also be raised about BioNTech’s objectives with this initiative. Last week it was revealed that a consultancy on BioNTech’s payroll, the kENUP Foundation, is trying to undermine the work of a World Health Organisation and South African-led project to make mRNA COVID vaccines as a global public good and free of big pharma’s control.”

Copyright © 2024 Oxfam Aotearoa.

Oxfam is a worldwide development organisation that mobilises the power of people against injustice. Oxfam Aotearoa is a registered charity with the New Zealand Charities Register (registration CC24641). Donations are tax refundable.

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