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Rich countries hold key to leaders’ chances at World Bank/IMF meetings of halting pandemic and averting a US$9 trillion catastrophe

Rich countries must open the way to cheaper mass-produced COVID-19 vaccines in order to protect every person in the world and avert a $9 trillion “worst-case” global economic catastrophe, said Oxfam today. They should also agree this week to inject $650 billion more into the global economy to help developing countries cope with the pandemic’s already devastating effects.

The two issues —one around tackling the chronic global scarcity of vaccines that are now sparking trade disputes between and economic shocks among countries, and the other in agreeing to a new allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)— will feature at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Spring Meetings April 5-11.

Together, these two initiatives would go a long way towards providing the public health protection and economic stimulus that people and countries all over the world desperately need. Urgent action is needed as COVID-19 continues to spike, mutate and kill whilst continuing to wreak economic havoc.

Oxfam is urging IMF members to waste no time in endorsing a $650 billion SDR issuance —enough for low-income countries to nearly double their healthcare spending for a year. This would be a highly welcome move and the culmination of pressure that civil society and others have been applying to member countries to do the right thing.

However, Oxfam warned that the current approach to the global production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is falling far short of what is needed.

Anna Marriott, Public Health Manager for Oxfam, which is part of the People’s Vaccine Alliance, said: “Rich countries are defending the interests of the pharmaceutical sector over other businesses and their economies as a whole. It is a bizarre act of financial and economic self-harm. They are condemning everyone including their own citizens to suffer the consequences.”

Oxfam, with other members of the People’s Vaccine Alliance, is calling for an end to ‘vaccine apartheid’ which is seeing rich nations vaccinate one person a second whilst many developing nations have yet to administer a single dose. The Alliance is calling for US President Joe Biden and other rich country leaders to show immediate support for the lifting of pharmaceutical monopolies and intellectual property rules to enable a huge scale up in global vaccination.

The International Chamber of Commerce estimates that vaccine inequality at today’s scale could cost the world around $9.2 trillion in economic losses, in the worst-case scenario, with rich countries suffering half of that blow. Drawing on the findings of this study, Oxfam calculates that these losses are equivalent to:

• The United States could lose up to $2,700 per person in household spending in 2021, which is $1,300 more than the recent stimulus cheque that each received from President Biden’s administration. Overall, the US could lose as much as $1.3 trillion in GDP as its share of the cost of vaccine inequality.
• The UK could face up to a $1,380 loss in spending for every person. Similarly, a $1,239 loss in 2021 per person in France, roughly equivalent to a monthly rent bill.
• Per capita losses in household spending in Japan and Italy in 2021 could amount to around $1,451 and $1,495 respectively.
• Canadians could miss out on $1,979 this year in spending as a result of global vaccine inequalities.

Yet these same rich countries are among those now opposing moves by India and South Africa at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to break open the monopolies of big pharmaceutical companies, a move that would help other manufacturers to mass-produce more and cheaper vaccines.

“The US, UK, Germany, France, Japan and Italy together could lose as much as $2.3 trillion in GDP this year unless they stop fighting on behalf of a handful of big drug companies to retain the intellectual property of the vaccine —despite this status quo plainly failing both them and everyone else,” said Marriott. “It totally beggars belief.”

Vaccine inequality is hitting low- and middle-income countries even harder:

• India could lose as much $786 billion, or over 27 percent, of its GDP due to global vaccine inequities.
• South Africa could see 24 percent wiped off its GDP, losing the equivalent of nearly $874 per person in household expenditure in 2021.
• The Philippines meanwhile could be stripped of up to 18 percent of its GDP this year due to vaccine inequity, equivalent to around $450 per person in household spending.

“This is a stark reminder that vaccine inequality has a real economic impact on us all, even as a solution stares our leaders in the face. The richest people can cope better with this cost but every person, in every country in the world, is being expected to pay and struggle —the poorest people most of all,” Marriott said.

“A People’s Vaccine is possible if WTO members waive these companies’ intellectual property, as India, South Africa and nearly 100 other countries are demanding, and the vaccine science and technology are shared through the WHO’s Coronavirus Technology Access Pool (C-Tap). Countries from around the world, including the richest G20, are meeting this week to discuss the global economic and health crisis which makes this a perfect moment for a breakthrough,” Marriott said.

On a possible new SDR allocation, Daar said: “SDRs are the quickest, surest way to provide much-needed liquidity to developing countries which, unlike the wealthiest countries, simply haven’t been able to afford to deploy trillion-dollar COVID-19 relief plans to revive economies and boost healthcare systems. Crucially, it’s money that never has to be repaid and won’t plunge countries even further into debt.

“A new SDR allocation can be done very quickly —it took just a few short months to inject $250 billion worth of SDRs into the global economy in 2009. If enough progress is made during the Spring Meetings, this money could be saving lives and livelihoods before the end of the summer,” Daar said.

$650 billion worth of SDRs would deliver approximately $22 billion in added reserves to the world’s poorest countries, and $228 billion to middle-income countries. It is a crucial lifeline but won’t be nearly enough. The IMF estimates low-income countries will need to deploy $200 billion over five years just to fight the pandemic. “We urgently need rich countries to reallocate their SDRs to support low-income countries, act on debt cancellation and ramp up their aid commitments including through the Bank’s International Development Association replenishment,” added Daar.

Notes to editors:

• Figures are in USD
• The World Bank and IMF 2021 Spring meetings will take place virtually 5-11 April. G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet 7-8 April. The International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) will discuss SDRs on 8 April.
• A study commissioned in January 2021 by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Research Foundation found that the global economy stands to lose as much as $9.2 trillion if governments fail to ensure developing economy access to COVID-19 vaccines.
• Country-by-country vaccination rates: Our World in Data, accessed 29 March, 2021, and World Bank country classifications. Calculations by Oxfam.
• Download Oxfam’s methodological calculations for household loss.
• More than 200 groups have called on the G20 to support the creation of $3 trillion in SDRs.
• The IMF approved its last SDR allocation of $250 billion in August 2009, in the wake of the global financial crisis.
• Read Oxfam’s latest blog about how the World Bank can promote a fairer and faster global vaccine roll-out.
• Download ‘Behind the Numbers’, Oxfam’s updated dataset on spending, accountability, and recovery measures included in the IMF’s COVID-19 loans.

Media Contact:

Jo Spratt | Communications and Advocacy Director | Wellington, New Zealand | [email protected] | 0210664210

New survey from People’s Vaccine Alliance shows urgency of vaccinating all countries

Epidemiologists, from some of the world’s leading academic institutions, delivered a stark warning today of the risk the world is taking by failing to ensure all countries have sufficient vaccines to protect people from COVID-19.

In a survey of 77 epidemiologists from 28 countries, carried out by The People’s Vaccine Alliance, two-thirds thought that we had a year or less before the virus mutates to the extent that the majority of first-generation vaccines are rendered ineffective and new or modified vaccines are required. Of those surveyed, almost a third gave a timeframe of nine months or less. Fewer than one in eight said they believed that mutations would never render the current vaccines ineffective.

The overwhelming majority – 88 per cent – said that persistent low vaccine coverage in many countries would make it more likely for vaccine resistant mutations to appear.

The People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of over 50 organisations including African Alliance, Oxfam, Public Citizen and UNAIDS warned that at the current rate it was likely that only 10 per cent of people in the majority of poor countries will be vaccinated in the next year.

Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed – who included epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists from institutions including Johns Hopkins, Yale, Imperial College, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Cambridge University, the University of Edinburgh and The University of Cape Town – said that open sharing of technology and intellectual property could increase global vaccine coverage. The People’s Vaccine Alliance is calling for the lifting of pharmaceutical monopolies and the sharing of technology to urgently boost vaccine supply.

Devi Sridhar, Professor of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, said: “The more the virus circulates, the more likely it is that mutations and variants will emerge, which could make our current vaccines ineffective. At the same time, poor countries are being left behind without vaccines and basic medical supplies like oxygen.

“As we’ve learned, viruses don’t care about borders. We have to vaccinate as many people as possible, everywhere in the world, as quickly as possible. Why wait and watch instead of getting ahead of this?”

While he didn’t specify a timeframe, Gregg Gonsalves, Associate Professor of Epidemiology at Yale University, echoed the urgency to vaccinate globally. Gonsalves said: “With millions of people around the world infected with this virus, new mutations arise every day. Sometimes they find a niche that makes them more fit than their predecessors. These lucky variants could transmit more efficiently and potentially evade immune responses to previous strains. Unless we vaccinate the world, we leave the playing field open to more and more mutations, which could churn out variants that could evade our current vaccines and require booster shots to deal with them.

“We all have a self-interest in ensuring that everyone around the world, no matter where they live have access to COVID-19 vaccines. The virus doesn’t respect borders and new variants somewhere on the planet mean none of us are safe.”

Quarraisha Abdool Karim, Associate Scientific Director of CAPRISA and Professor in Clinical Epidemiology at Columbia University, said: “As nations start to expand their vaccination programmes we are once again reminded about our inter-dependence. High coverage rates and herd immunity in one country or region of the world while others, particularly low- and middle-income countries, continue to wait in line will create the perfect environment for the virus to continue to mutate and negate the benefits of any vaccine protection.

“In contrast, there are enormous benefits for everyone to have more equitable access to available doses of vaccines and achieve herd immunity globally sooner. As scientists, advocates, and decision-makers we must ensure that as many people are vaccinated all over the world and as soon as possible so that we can all focus our efforts in rebuilding our communities, livelihoods, and economies and know that we are all safe from COVID-19 and be better prepared for the next pandemic.”

The survey shows that it is imperative for the safety of all citizens in all countries that people in developing countries are vaccinated as soon as possible. Failure to tackle global vaccine inequality heightens the risk of further mutations.

Despite this imperative, rich country defence of the monopolies of pharmaceutical giants mean that global supplies are being artificially rationed, with a handful of companies deciding who lives and who dies. Earlier this month, rich countries blocked a proposal to waive intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines. The People’s Vaccine Alliance urges them to reconsider when talks resume at the World Trade Organisation in April.

The Alliance is also calling for all pharmaceutical corporations working on COVID-19 vaccines to openly share their technology and intellectual property through the World Health Organization COVID-19 Technology Access Pool, in order to speed up and ramp up the production and rollout of vaccines to all countries.

Anna Marriott, Oxfam’s Health Policy Manager, said: “In many rich nations, vaccinated people are starting to feel safer, but unless we vaccinate all nations, there is a huge risk that the protection offered by vaccines will be shattered by fresh mutations.

“This survey highlights that we need a people’s vaccine, not only to protect people in the world’s poorest countries, but to ensure that people all over the world who’ve already been vaccinated aren’t put at risk again.”

Current vaccines appear to be at least partially effective against existing mutations but where new vaccines are needed it will take many months before they are approved for use and even longer to begin rolling them out. In the meantime, lockdowns and travel bans will continue to be the main protections against rising infections and fatalities. New vaccine recipes will also be subject to the same pharmaceutical monopolies, further restricting access for the rest of the world.

Dr Mohga Kamal Yanni, Senior Health Policy Advisor to The People Vaccine Alliance, said: “If we were in a war with a country called COVID, would governments leave vital decisions on production, supply and price in the hands of arms producing companies?

“Given vaccines are our most crucial weapon in the fight against COVID-19, world leaders must take control to enable the World Health Organisation’s COVID Technology Access Pool to facilitate sharing of technology and Intellectual Property so that all capable companies can maximise global vaccine production.”

/Ends

Notes to editors:

Of the 77 respondents to the survey:

• 66.2% thought we had a year or less before the virus mutates to the extent that the majority of first-generation vaccines are rendered ineffective (18.2% of which thought we have 6 months or less and 32.5% said 9 months or less).
• 7.8% thought we would never see mutations rendering the current vaccines ineffective and new or modified vaccines being required and a further 7.8% didn’t feel confident in putting a time estimate. 18.2% thought we had 2 years or more before mutations render the current vaccines ineffective and new or modified vaccines are required.
• 74% said that open sharing of technology and intellectual property could increase global vaccine coverage. 23% said maybe and 3% said no.
• 88.3% said that persistent low vaccine coverage in many countries would make it more likely for vaccine resistant mutations to appear, 6.5% said it wouldn’t and 5.2% didn’t answer the question.

The survey was carried out between 17 February and 25 March 2021. Survey respondents include epidemiologists, virologists and infection disease specialists form the following universities / institutions:

Aalborg University Hospital in Denmark, Académie nationale de médecine in Paris, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Amader Hospital India, AMREF International University in Kenya, Belgian Lung and Tuberculosis Association, Cambridge University, Centre for Family Health Research in Zambia, Centre for Disease Control & Prevention in South Sudan, Centre for Infections Disease research Zambia, Columbia University USA, Complutense University in Madrid, Danish Medical Association, école de santé publique de l’Université in Montréal, Emory University USA, Forum for ethics review committees in India, fundacion huesped in Argentina, Georgetown USA, Good Clinical Practice Alliance – Europe (GCPA), Hamdard University in India, Ibn Sina Academy of Medicine and Sciences in India, Imperial College London, Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine USA, ISPG – Instituto Superior Politecnico de Gaza, Johns Hopkins University USA, Johnson & Johnson, Kabale University in Uganda, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Lebanese University, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Makerere University in Uganda, Movement for Community-led Development, Mpilonhle in South Africa, National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani in Italy, National Research Ethics Board/PREVAIL in Liberia, OTRANS-RN in Guatemala, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam,  Portland State University School of Public Health USA, St. Luke’s Medical Centre in the Philippines, Tufts University USA, University College London UK, University College London Institute for Global Health UK, University of Cape Town, Cliniques Universitaires Saint–Luc in Belgium, University of the East Ramon Magsaysay in the Philippines, UK Emergency Medical Team, Unicamillus International University of Medical Science in Italy, Union of Junior Doctors in Denmark, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel Rene Moreno in Bolivia, Universidad Nacional del Litoral in Argentina, University of Cambridge UK, University of Cape Town in South Africa, University of Edinburgh UK, University of Maryland USA, University of Oxford, University of Pretoria in South Africa, University of Southern Denmark, University of Zimbabwe, University of Zambia, Walter Sisulu University in South Africa, World Health Organisation India, Wits University in South Africa and Yale School of Public Health USA.

The respondents were from the following 28 countries:  Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Bolivia, Canada, Denmark, Ethiopia, France, Guatemala, India, Italy, Kenya, Lebanon, Norway, Philippines, Senegal, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, UAE, Uganda, UK, USA, Vietnam, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Media Contact:

Jo Spratt | Communications and Advocacy Director | Wellington, New Zealand | [email protected] | 0210664210