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COP26 week two: Oxfam urges governments to move faster

At the start of COP26 week two, Oxfam urges governments to move faster and decisively in the final five days, if they are to reach a deal that will keep 1.5°C within reach and increase support to vulnerable communities.

On keeping 1.5°C within reach, Tracy Carty, head of Oxfam’s COP26 delegation said:

“Last week saw a flurry of announcements, from halting deforestation to reducing methane emissions. And it is an important signal that more countries have committed to ending coal use, and some even fossil fuel financing abroad. Yet, for some of these announcements there is a glaring lack of detail on what they entail.

“They must not be a distraction from the urgent issue of countries needing to increase the ambition of their national emission reduction targets (NDCs) by 2030. Current pledges still add up to a catastrophic 2.7°C.

“This is a crisis COP. There is no time to waste and duck responsibility. Governments absolutely have to keep 1.5°C within reach. This week there has to be a deal that compels all countries to increase the ambition of their NDCs in line with their fair share.”

On the issue of adaptation finance:

“Adaptation finance is a lifeline for poor communities, crucial for helping countries adapt to extreme weather events which they are least responsible for. But currently, only $20 billion of the $100 billion commitment is allocated to adaptation, less than half.

“We need agreement at this COP that there will be a significant increase in adaptation finance, in line with developing country calls for a 50/50 split between adaptation and mitigation, with a greater percentage of funds provided as grants not loans. Last week an increasing number of countries, including Germany, said this call for 50 per cent needed to be taken seriously.

On Loss and damage finance:

“Even at today’s 1.1°C of warming, we are all witnessing more frequent and devastating climate impacts around the world. And the world’s poorest countries are footing the bill for a climate crisis they did little to cause.

“We saw a glimmer of hope start of week one when Scotland stepped forward and became the first rich nation to explicitly commit to finance for loss and damage. We need other rich nations to now do the same.

“We have seen long-standing resistance from developed countries on the question of how to increase resources to help developing countries facing the worst impacts of climate change. Governments have five days to show communities on the frontlines of climate change that they’re not alone.”

Oxfam is also calling for world leaders to listen to the voices of people from developing countries and act on their concerns. Margaret Masudio, a smallholder from Uganda who travelled to the COP with Oxfam to participate said:

“We are very worried, particularly for our children. How do we survive? If right now, the hardship we are facing is at this level, how about the future? Farmers are paying the price for climate change, without knowing why they are paying the price.

“At past COPs, we feel their impact very little – most of the things remained on paper. We hear policies but implementation is not done, because finance is not adequate.” 

“In Uganda they have being giving support to communities that have been affected, but it is insufficient. So, at this COP my hope is that all the nations that are here are going to join hands to ensure that loss and damages are financed.” 

Carbon emissions of richest 1% set to be 30 times the 1.5°C limit in 2030

The carbon footprints of the richest 1 per cent of people on Earth are set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement in 2030, according to new research out today. It comes as delegates grapple with how to keep this goal alive at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow.

In 2015, governments agreed to the goal of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but current pledges to reduce emissions fall far short of what is needed. To stay within this guardrail, every person on Earth would need to emit an average of just 2.3 tonnes of CO2 per year by 2030 – this is roughly half the average footprint of every person on Earth today.

Today’s study, commissioned by Oxfam based on research carried out by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), estimates how governments’ pledges will affect the carbon footprints of richer and poorer people around the world. It treats the global population and income groups as if they were a single country. It finds that by 2030:

  • The poorest half of the global population will still emit far below the 1.5°C-aligned level in 2030.
  • The richest 1 per cent and 10 per cent of people are set to exceed this level by 30 times and 9 times respectively.
  • Someone in the richest 1 per cent would need to reduce their emissions by around 97 per cent compared with today to reach this level.

But in a sign that the 2015 Paris Agreement is having some impact, the middle 40 per cent are on course for per capita emissions cuts of 9 per cent from 2015 to 2030. This is a turnaround for a group, which is mostly made up of citizens in middle-income countries like China and South Africa that saw the fastest per capita emissions growth rates from 1990 to 2015.

Looking at total global emissions, instead of per capita emissions, the richest 1 per cent – fewer people than the population of Germany – are expected to account for 16 per cent of total global emissions by 2030, up from 13 per cent in 1990 and 15 per cent in 2015. The total emissions of the richest 10 per cent alone are set to exceed the 1.5°C-aligned level in 2030, regardless of what the other 90 per cent do.

Nafkote Dabi, Climate Policy Lead at Oxfam, said: “The emissions from a single billionaire space flight would exceed the lifetime emissions of someone in the poorest billion people on Earth. A tiny elite appear to have a free pass to pollute. Their over-sized emissions are fuelling extreme weather around the world and jeopardising the international goal of limiting global heating. The emissions of the wealthiest 10 per cent alone could send us beyond the agreed limit in the next nine years. This would have catastrophic results for some of the most vulnerable people on Earth who are already facing deadly storms, hunger and destitution.”

The geography of global carbon inequality is set to change too, with a larger share of the emissions of the world’s richest 1 per cent and 10 per cent linked to citizens in middle income countries. By 2030, Chinese citizens will be responsible for almost a quarter (23 per cent) of the emissions of the richest 1 per cent, US citizens for a fifth (19 per cent) and Indian citizens for a tenth (11 per cent).

Tim Gore, author of this briefing and Head of the Low Carbon and Circular Economy programme at IEEP, said: “The global emissions gap to keep the 1.5°C Paris goal alive is not the result of the consumption of most of the world’s people: it reflects instead the excessive emissions of just the richest citizens on the planet. To close the emissions gap by 2030, it is necessary for governments to target measures at their richest, highest emitters – the climate and inequality crises should be tackled together. That includes both measures to constrain luxury carbon consumption like mega yachts, private jets and space travel, and to curb climate-intensive investments like stock-holdings in fossil fuel industries.”

Emily Ghosh, Scientist at Stockholm Environment Institute says: “Our research highlights the challenge of ensuring a more equitable distribution of the remaining and rapidly diminishing global carbon budget. If we continue on the same trajectory as today the stark inequalities in income and emissions across the global population will remain, challenging the equity principle at the very heart of the Paris Agreement. Analysis of carbon inequality must urgently be put at the centre of governments efforts to reduce emissions.”

Oxfam said world leaders should focus on targeting deeper emissions cuts by 2030, in line with their fair share, and ensure that the richest people worldwide and within countries make the most radical cuts. The richest citizens have the potential to speed up this process dramatically, both by leading greener lifestyles but also by directing their political influence and investments towards a low-carbon economy.

Notes to editors:

For a copy of the briefing see: Carbon Inequality in 2030: Per capita consumption emissions and the 1.5C goal

The report was commissioned by Oxfam and authored by Tim Gore, IEEP, based on research carried out by IEEP and SEI.

Today’s briefing is based on an analysis of the impact of unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted up to September 2021 under the Paris Agreement on the per capita consumption emissions of different global income groups.

Global income groups

Estimated consumption emissions per person in 2030 (tonnes CO2 per year)

Number of times over the level of per capita emissions consistent with 1.5°C (2.3 tonnes)

Richest 1%

70

x30

Richest 10%

21

x9

Middle 40%

5

x2

Poorest 50%

1

x0.43 (less than half)

 

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2021 estimates that total global emissions will need to fall to approximately 18 Gt CO2 (25 Gt CO2e) per year by 2030, on a pathway to net zero emissions by mid-century, in order to have a reasonable chance of limiting global heating to 1.5°C. This works out to approximately 2.3 tonnes CO2 per person per year (per capita emissions) in 2030.

By 2030, the global population is projected to be approximately 7.9 billion people. This will comprise approximately 80 million people in the top 1 per cent, 800 million in the top 10 per cent, 3.4 billion in the ‘middle 40 per cent’ and 4 billion in the poorest 50 per cent.

By 2030, you would need an annual income of more than NZD 255,000 to be in the richest 1 per cent; more than NZD 82,000 to be in the richest 10 per cent; more than NZD 14,500 to be in the middle 40 per cent; or less than NZD 14,500 to be in the poorest half of the global population.

This briefing builds on last year’s report from Oxfam and SEI which estimated that the richest 1 per cent of people on Earth is responsible for twice the carbon emissions of the poorest 50 per cent from 1990 to 2015.

Carbon emissions per passenger for an 11-minute space flight are estimated to be at least 75 tonnes, according to a recent report by Lucas Chancel. People in the poorest billion emit less than one tonne of carbon per year.

The Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) is a sustainability Think Tank working with stakeholders across EU institutions, international bodies, academia, civil society and industry. Our team of economists, scientists and lawyers produce evidence-based research and policy insight (www.ieep.eu).

The Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organisation that tackles environment and development challenges.

Reaction to pledge to end overseas fossil fuel

Responding to reports that around 20 countries, including New Zealand, have committed to stop financing overseas fossil fuel projects by the end of 2022, Oxfam’s climate policy lead Nafkote Dabi said:

“This is an encouraging move that will divert much-needed resources to clean energy and help countries to develop in a low carbon way. Energy is vital to economic and social development, burning fossil fuels is not. This is the only way we can meet the collective goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C.

“With around 20 governments already on board, it is now vital that others sign up at these talks, including some of the largest funders of overseas coal, oil and gas who are notably absent. 

“I also hope that these signatories will bring forward clear commitments to help poorer countries build clean energy systems. They should also progress to phasing out all new fossil fuel projects at home as well as abroad, as the International Energy Agency says we must.”

Oxfam supports Partnering for Resilience approach to Aotearoa New Zealand’s Pacific engagement

Oxfam Aotearoa Executive Director Rachael Le Mesurier said:

“The Minister’s speech today outlined a deeper approach to Aotearoa New Zealand’s relationships with Pacific Island Countries. Building on the Pacific Reset of 2018, the Minister has articulated yet another step-change to the nature of Aotearoa New Zealand’s relationships across te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.

“The move to focus on building long-term resilience across the region, with an enduring inter-generational approach will be key to Aotearoa supporting Pacific people to make the lasting and meaningful changes that they wish to see in their own countries.

“The emphasis on Pacific-led solutions and relationships of openness, trust and respect that Minister Mahuta described resonates with us at Oxfam, as this is also our approach to working with our colleagues and partners across the Pacific. We also know how challenging it can be to put these values into practice across the diversity of Pacific Island countries and peoples.

“We were pleased to hear that there will be a focus within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) on cultural competency and diversity. We question whether further changes will also be necessary across MFAT, and other government departments, to fully implement the values-based approach the Minister outlined today.

“We look forward to working alongside our Pacific partners and MFAT, to achieve inclusion, prosperity, peace and well-being for all peoples across the great Blue Continent.”

Oxfam reacts to World Health Organisation announcement on Covaxin

In response to the announcement that the World Health Organisation (WHO) has granted emergency use for the COVID-19 vaccine, Covaxin, developed by Bharat Biotech in India, People’s Vaccine Alliance spokesperson and Oxfam Health Policy Manager, Anna Marriott, said:

“Another approved vaccine to fight COVID-19 is fantastic news. We strongly encourage Bharat Biotech to show pandemic leadership and do the right thing for humanity by agreeing to share the vaccine technology and rights with the WHO’s COVID Technology Access Pool, so that more manufacturers around the world can produce them.

“Today’s vaccine apartheid between rich and poor countries has been created by the monopolies of companies like Pfizer and Moderna who have consistently put obscene profits before saving lives and we urge Bharat Biotech not to follow in their footsteps.

“This decision should also silence those who have claimed that the experience and expertise to develop and manufacture life-saving medicines and vaccines do not exist in developing countries. Those claims were wrong for HIV two decades ago, and they are wrong now.”

A year since conflict erupted, nearly 7 million people still suffering in Northern Ethiopia

One year since conflict broke out in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, almost seven million people there and in neighboring Amhara and Afar are reeling from the combined toll of violence, human rights abuses, hunger, locusts, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

With the conflict now spreading in Northern Ethiopia, many more vulnerable people are left without vital protections and resources. The need is growing exponentially, while the aid that could save lives and head off further catastrophe falls woefully short due to access restrictions and inadequate funding for the response.

According to the IPC’s food security figures, 400,000 people in Tigray are living in famine-like conditions. While the Ethiopian government has not endorsed these findings, their own figures show that close to 2 million people displaced in Amhara and Afar are in urgent need of aid.

Parvin Ngala, Oxfam’s Regional Director for the Horn, East and Central Africa said, “No matter how you measure this crisis, there is no disputing that hundreds of thousands of people are suffering in catastrophic hunger and even more are in urgent need of aid. Yet, what we have been able to provide so far is a mere drop in the ocean. Families desperately need food, clean water, shelter, and other essentials – and they also need to be able to safely return to work, have access to cash and fuel, and live in safety. There is so much more we can and must do, and we are committed. Now we also need a commitment from all parties to allow unfettered humanitarian access and the tools for the response, and the economy to recover.”

Humanitarians are witnessing first-hand the human toll this crisis is taking. People who have fled their homes have shared with Oxfam harrowing stories of losing their property, cattle, and food stocks and spending days hiding out in rough terrain without food, water, or shelter. Many farmers reported not being able to plant or harvest crops this year and having lost their animals due to the conflict.

The people of Ethiopia are doing all they can to support themselves and each other to survive, with communities hosting many of those who have been forced from their homes and sharing what little they have. As the conflict continues however, and resources become even more scarce, they need additional, urgent support now to meet their most basic needs.

“As is so often the case, those already facing incredible hardships are stepping up for others in need. We need global leaders to step up and provide the $255 million still urgently needed to help humanitarian organisations respond to the crisis. We also need to see leaders, especially in the region, use their influence to push for peace,” Oxfam’s Ngala said.

Oxfam has been responding to the crisis in Tigray and Amhara since November 2020 in partnership with local organizations, reaching close to 85,000 people with food, clean water, health, and sanitation services. Oxfam’s goal is to reach 400,000 people total, but that is being hampered by the severe risks and restrictions the humanitarian community is facing.

“As a humanitarian organization, our focus is working with local organizations and leaders to help save lives now and to prevent future crises. We are calling on all parties to do the same – and to prioritize the lives of Ethiopians now caught in this conflict,” added Ngala.

“Oxfam calls for all parties to deescalate the conflict and respect international law, to allow humanitarians to access the most vulnerable and to make cash, fuel, and other services available to allow the economy to recover and for the response to save lives. And above all, Oxfam calls upon all warring parties to reach a sustainable and inclusive peace before more lives are lost and this becomes yet another unheeded warning and stain on our collective conscience.”

Notes to Editors:

Copyright © 2024 Oxfam Aotearoa.

Oxfam is a worldwide development organisation that mobilises the power of people against injustice. Oxfam Aotearoa is a registered charity with the New Zealand Charities Register (registration CC24641). Donations are tax refundable.

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